Michigan State Weekend Preview: Simon Fraser, Sonoma State, Oregon

Big set of games this weekend for the Spartans, as they try to prove their season-opening win over Florida was no fluke (though with a 1-goal win over Georgia and a loss to Tennessee, the Gators may just be out to prove it themselves). Michigan State wants to continue making strides after earning an at-large bid to the MCLA tournament in 2010, and this weekend can go a long way to taking that next step.

Simon Fraser

Simon Fraser has had plenty of success in recent years, but this season hasn't gotten off to a great start. The Clansmen are 1-2 with the sole win coming over MCLA-2 side Western Washington (who is 0-5). Historically weak Utah earned a win against SFU last weekend, and BYU pounded the Canadians in Provo, 16-8.

A pair of sophomores lead Simon Fraser in attack Colton Dow and midfielder Stuart Miles. Junior midfielder Rick Bezuidenhout joins those two in averaging over 3 points per game. 5th-year Ben Johnson and freshman Max Weselowski split time on faceoffs, with Johnson having more success to date. Sophomore Kyle Middletown is the starting goalie.

Simon Fraser has a tiny roster, with only 19 guys on the squad. Michigan State has developed some decent depth over the past few years, and if they can tire out the Clansmen they have an excellent shot at victory.

Sonoma State

The Seawolves have started 3-0 this season, but haven't really impressed, outside of a 19-1 pasting of Portland State. This is the sort of game Michigan State must have if they want to prove they're ready to take the next step.

Sonoma State only has stats up from their first game (which you may recall was a 19-1 victory), so it's tough to say who their real key players are. Four different Seawolves put up at least four points against Portland State, including senior attack Casey Wood, who had 3 goals and 5 assists.

The Seawolves will take on Oregon Saturday before the game against the Spartans on Sunday. This game will be streamed on Collegelax.us if you want to watch it.

Oregon

At this time, it's tough to say what the Ducks will do from here on out. They should be able to get into the win column on Saturday against Sonoma State, but does that mean they were playing weak competition, or that they are turning around their season? Since the Michigan game, they've lost to Chapman. They play Sonoma State on Saturday.

For more previewin' of the Ducks, take a look at what I wrote when Michigan was about to play them.

Predictions

As I'm writing this, it feels like every paragraph about MSU starts with "if Michigan State wants to take the next step..." but at this juncture, that's the storyline for a Spartan program that wants to prove it's on the rise, not content to always (and forever) be Little Brother.

So, If Michigan State wants to take the next step, a 3-0 record this weekend would be a huge boost toward achieving that goal. As it is, I can see them dropping a game that they probably shouldn't, as well. Allowing them one loss this weekend (probably against Oregon) is fair, and I see the Spartans coming out 2-1 on their trip to the Northwest.

Michigan 9, Oregon 8 (2OT)

Michigan 2-0.

Phew. Oregon has had a rocky start to the year, and the Wolverines did not want to be the team that helped them turn it around (a la Colorado last year). The Ducks led by 4 goals at halftime and after the third quarter, and the Wolverines had to dig deep to complete the comeback.

They tied the game at 8 with three minutes left, and even had a chance to win it in regulation, but Tom Paras's shot couldn't find the net. Chad Carroll atoned for the miss in the second overtime period, scoring the game-winner on an assist from Joey Hrusovsky.

Tempo Free

From the Michigan recap, here's your tempo-free breakdown:

Oregon
Oregon		Michigan
Faceoff Wins	6	Faceoff Wins	14
Clearing	13-24	Clearing	20-28
Possessions	38	Possessions	53
Goals	8	Goals	9
Offensive Efficiency	.211	Offensive Efficiency	.170

The Wolverines ended up with a hefty advantage in possession, but according to someone who was at the game, that wan't the case through three quarters. In the fourth quarter, they turned up the intensity and managed to control the ball without throwing it away in the rain.

Similar story on faceoffs. Edward Ernst was unavailable, so the Wolverines had to live and die by Brian Greiner. That didn't go so well to start the game, but he dominated the fourth quarter, which helped settle the team.

Michigan was inefficient despite their possession advantage (again, sounding a lot like last year's Colorado game), playing sloppy in bad weather. The 10-man ride was broken a few times, and I'm not sure whether Oregon's trouble clearing (they only finished .542 on clears, to Michigan's .714) came after Michigan switched away.

Notes

There's never a great excuse for a team of Michigan's caliber to struggle out of the gate, but if ever there was one, this was it. The Wolverines' bus got to the game site less than half an hour before the faceoff, so there was very little time for the team to warm up and get accustomed to the rainy conditions.

From the sound of things, Oregon could have built a bigger lead when Michigan was struggling early in the game, but their offense still hasn't quite hit a groove, and they don't have the easiest time putting the ball in the net. That follows from what we heard about the Ducks' struggles in their first two games. If they were a better offensive team, the lead could have been insurmountable.

The Ducks were able to keep Trevor Yealy from having a good day offensively, but Chad Carroll was able to step it up with four goals - including the overtime winner. I came away from the Florida game impressed with the power on his shot, and he was placing them in the corners last night as well. This Michigan team has so many offensive weapons that it's impossible to completely shut down the offense by taking away Yealy (which was possible last year). Carroll on the offense:

"Coach Paul told us to keep running our offense, you know, and keep doing things we’d been doing. He was really positive about the things we were doing on offense, we just weren’t necessarily capitalizing on our opportunities."

The goalies split time in the net, with Stone allowing 7 goals and collecting 5 saves. Fowler only allowed the Ducks to find the back of the net once, while making 6 saves. Without seeing the game, it's hard to say whether Fowler played that much better, if Oregon's finishing attempts on him were worse, or if the Michigan defense just stepped it up bigtime in the second half. Probably a mix, as the e-mailer who was in attendance said Oregon got "a few bad goals from outside" in the first half, and the defense was "completely shut down in the fourth. Oregon barely got looks on cage." Coach Paul on the official site:

"We made a planned goalie change, and Fowler just happened to have a great second half. Stone had a pretty good first half too."

At the end of the day, every team is going to have a game here and there where they struggle. This seemed like a perfect storm (no pun intended) for the Wolverines, and it's far better to struggle in a win than to lose the game.

Elsewhere

The official site has your game recap and boxscore, in addition to a travel blog from days 1 and 2.

Up Next

According to the official site, today is the team's only day off from lacrosse on this trip. They'll get back to the grind tomorrow, and next take the field on Wednesday against Loyola Marymount. I'll preview the Lions as that game approaches.

Michigan Weekend Preview: Oregon

Just one game for the maize-and-blue this weekend, as they take on a struggling Oregon team on Friday at 6:00 PM at Harvard-Westlake High School in Los Angeles, CA (Google map, if you're in the L.A. area and interested in going).

Oregon

I talked a bit about Oregon's early-season struggles in last week's season preview on Mgoblog, but I'll expand in them here.

The Ducks have started 0-2, but also have a win against a UNLV team that was kicked out of the MCLA after a player refused to serve a suspension for fighting, and his coach allowed him to play in the next game. The Rebels were already a weak team, and losing their league affiliation has done little to strengthen them, I'm sure. Either way, that game counts as nothing more than a scrimmage for the Ducks.

The first loss came against Cal, and though the Bears are a respectable team, losing to them by a 2-10 score is not something a team with Oregon's recent history of success should do. Despite returning plenty of talent, the Ducks seem to be playing poor team offense and shooting the ball terribly. Once the Ducks get their offense running smoothly, they're capable of turning the season around in a hurry.

In the second game, the Ducks fell to Santa Clara University. BHSVideoDad brings the evidence:

The Ducks return last year's 3rd-Team All-American selection, Nick Johnston, at goalie, and another 3rd-Teamer, Steven Brizie, in their defensive unit. They are a pretty strong defensive team, but it's been scoring goals, not preventing them, that they've struggled with this year.

On the offensive end, they don't have a lot of production, so it's tough to say who their big scorers will be this season. Senior middie Kevin Clark was an Honorable Mention All-American last year, and he's scored one of the Ducks' 8 goals. Junior midfielder Spencer Robertson is the only Duck with multiple points, scoring a goal in each of UO's first two games.

At the end of the day, it's production that matters. The Ducks don't have much yet, and they're facing the best team at the club level. This is a matchup that the Wolverines should be able to take - perhaps easily so.

Elsewhere

UMGoBlog's Josh Hagerman interviews a couple members of Oregon's coaching staff in his preview.

Predictions

I think the UNLV scrimmage has helped Oregon snap out of their offensive funk a little bit, but this will be the best team they've faced - on both sides of the ball - so far this year. Michigan plays away from Oosterbaan Fieldhouse for the first time this spring, which might require some adjusting. At the end of the day, the Wolverines will emerge with a 19-7 victory.